Brazil Under Scrutiny

Brazil is assuming a new economic and political prominence on the world stage—"taking off," as the editors of The Economist would have us believe.

A combination of a booming economy, a stable political environment and a growing middle class—plus the luck of finding 50+ billion barrels off its coast—have made Latin America's largest country both a good place to do business and a regional powerhouse. Brazil has also become a leader on issues of global concern: clean energy, the world financial system (through participation in the G-20, and now as a creditor to the IMF), and the Doha round of world trade talks.

Most recently, the country won its bid to host the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro—the first time the games will be held in South America and only the second time in Latin America. In the end, apparently International Olympic Committee members found Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's calls for redressing the "imbalance" of the Games more convincing than Obama's description of Chicago's "rich tapestry" of diversity.

The moment the IOC awarded the Games to Rio, the press and pundits began asking if Brazil was actually ready to host what is arguably the world's most prominent sporting event (save, perhaps, for the soccer World Cup, which Rio will host in 2014), citing lingering concerns about security and infrastructure. These folks must have felt quite vindicated when Brazil received international coverage in October for a major drug gang war that broke out in Rio, killing at least 32, and a blackout last week that left parts of 18 Brazilian states in the dark (oh, plus the entire nation of Paraguay, which luckily is not bidding on the Games any time soon—Ciudad del Este 2024!).

My guess is the "Olympics card" will continue to be played in nearly every article on Brazil in the international media over the next seven years. That certainly won't be a deviation from the past; both times the Games were held in the developing world—Mexico in 1968 and China in 2008—issues of whether these countries were economically, politically and culturally ready played into the debate (Note: Sarajevo, which was part of Yugoslavia when it hosted the 1984 Winter Games, is now part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, considered a developing country).

The spotlight of the Olympics could also focus scrutiny on other aspects of Brazilian policy. While Brazil is domestically stable and a regional leader, one possible area of contention is its ties with Iran. The two countries have long maintained a substantial trade relationship, which totaled $2 billion in 2007, quadrupling from 2002. Brazilian exports to Iran about as high as those from nearer neighbors India and Turkey, according to Farideh Farhi, an Iran expert at the University of Hawaii. In addition, Lula was one of few leaders to speak out in support of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad following the latter's widely contested victory in Iran's June presidential election. He's also defended Iran's right to a peaceful nuclear program.

And next week, the windbreaker-wearing Ahmadinejad will visit Brazil for the first time ever, raising concerns in both Washington and Jerusalem. The US Congress last month held a hearing on Iran's role in Latin America. While the timing was a coincidence (the hearing had been postponed from earlier in the summer), Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.), who heads the subcommittee that deals with U.S. policy in the Western Hemisphere, had this to say:

When Venezuela expands its relations with Iran, I may not like it, but I chalk it up to President Chavez and his altered sense of the world. But, when Brazil expands its ties to Iran—just as the world is trying to deal with the secretive Iranian nuclear program—I’m left bewildered. Brazil is a rapidly modernizing country which wants to join the UN Security Council and be a world leader. I truly hope Brazil reaches that point, but expanding ties to Ahmadinejad, who denies the Holocaust and calls for the destruction of another nation-state, Israel, is not the way to get there. In the future, I think we have to expand our dialogue with Brazil on the dangerous role of Iran and encourage our friends in Brasilia to reconsider their ties with Tehran.

Last week, Israel dispatched its aging president, Shimon Peres, to Brazil, where he urged Brazilian legislators to be a "voice against terror" and condemn both Iran's alleged funding of terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and professed desire to destroy the Jewish state. In a joint press conference with Peres, Lula condemned terrorism but defended Ahmadinejad's visit: "You can't build the peace necessary in the Middle East if you don't talk to all of political and religious forces that want peace or oppose peace."

Could any good come from Ahmadinejad's visit? Perhaps the best to hope for are a few public condemnations from Lula of intolerance and terrorism plus some private efforts to push Iran on the intentions of its nuclear program. Lula's top foreign policy adviser said in August that both the US and Israel have asked Brazil to "exercise its influence" on Iran regarding the nuclear issue. It's worth noting that Brazil has its own nuclear program, complete with a uranium enrichment facility, and has so far opposed signing the International Atomic Energy Agency's additional protocol on nuclear safeguards, to which Iran is already a signatory.

But don't expect Lula to criticize Iran directly. In fact, one parallel might be Obama's approach to his China visit; while putting the economic and trade aspects of the relationship with China first, Obama is engaging the Asian country more quietly on issues like human rights, Tibet and treatment of ethnic minorities. He has avoided criticizing Beijing's policies openly, but in a town hall meeting with Chinese students sought to share America's "core" values—"freedoms of expression and worship, of access to information and political participation." He also promised to discuss those issues in private meetings with Chinese officials.

Perhaps Lula can in his public appearances with Ahmadinejad uphold Brazilian values like tolerance and peace, while in private coax Iran to act on some of the promises it has recently made to the international community.